Belarus' foreign policy becomes subservient to Russia's foreign and security policy

Belarus is providing increasing support for Russia’s international policy initiatives, particularly in the context of establishing an alternative international order and a multipolar world. Public statements made by Belarusian officials to the international audiences emphasise the necessity for a new Eurasian security architecture. Belarus advocates that the consolidation of Russian-led regional organisations, the establishment of the new ones will facilitate the realisation of this objective.

Belarus is a key ally in Russia’s foreign policy, aligning its strategic documents with Russia’s international security interests. For example, in spring 2024, Belarus updated its military doctrine, adopting a more assertive stance. The new doctrine, unlike the 2016 version, is openly hostile towards the West, stating that the US, NATO and the ‘collective West’ are fuelling international confrontation to maintain world dominance. This aligns with Russia’s perspective that the war in Ukraine was provoked by the ‘collective West’ and that international organisations are instruments of the West. It highlights that by hindering a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, the West is creating conditions that could lead to an escalation of the conflict and the involvement of NATO. The document does not refer to Ukraine as an independent entity in international relations. We assess that the new doctrine reiterates Belarus’ full support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and, if necessary, for actions against NATO.

In the near term, Lukashenka will seek to be recognised as the legitimate leader of Belarus and pursue pragmatic interests in developing relations with Western countries, including Lithuania. However, Belarus will remain Russia’s closest ally and will not change its strategic direction.