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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Russian intelligence services conduct sabotage activities to undermine Western support for Ukraine
Russian intelligence uses ‘illegals’ to collect sensitive information
The Putin regime is confident of victory over Ukraine and the West
Despite growing risks to its economy, Russia can still finance the war
Russia continues to strengthen its military power
Temporarily reduced Russian military capabilities in Kaliningrad remain strong
Russia updated its nuclear doctrine
The Russian regime is increasing public and online surveillance
BELARUS
Belarusian intelligence services intensify activities against the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania and increasingly detain Lithuanian citizens in Belarus
A successful operation led to the arrest of two suspects spying for Belarus
Unrestrained use of Belarusian airspace by the Russian Armed Forces poses a threat to neighbouring NATO countries
Re-elected Lukashenka consolidates the authoritarian regime
Belarus' foreign policy becomes subservient to Russia's foreign and security policy
CHINA
China is helping Russia to continue its war against Ukraine
China engages in technological espionage to accelerate economic growth and modernise its military
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Russia seeks to discredit Lithuania, increasingly accusing it of rewriting history, promoting Nazism, and spreading Russophobia
The growing influence of AI on cybersecurity threats
CRISIS REGIONS
Tensions in the Middle East are expected to remain high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions
Iran increasingly targets its adversaries in Europe
Growing instability and third-country influence in Africa
TERRORISM
Terrorist threat to Europe remains high
Propaganda of right-wing extremist ideologies draws young people into violent hate crime groups
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BELARUS

Re-elected Lukashenka consolidates the authoritarian regime

Re-elected Lukashenka consolidates the authoritarian regime

The 2025 presidential elections in Belarus were neither transparent nor democratic, but they were nevertheless essential for Alexander Lukashenka to legitimise his rule in the eyes of the Belarusian public and the international community. The Belarusian regime sought to create an illusion of democratic elections, but with the pre-selected pro-regime candidates and the announcement of the election date only three months prior, the elections resembled a farce. The elections were organised in such a way that the public had as little time as possible to engage in any anti-regime civic initiatives.

In the run-up to the presidential elections, the regime proactively sought to prevent a repetition of the 2020 mass protests and to rally support by using ‘carrot and stick’ tactics. It continued to carry out severe public repression, targeting not only potential opposition figures but also Belarusian citizens who participated in the 2020 protests.

Concurrently, the regime initiated a series of events designed to garner public support, including the ‘Unity Marathon’ campaign, which was run by Lukashenka’s daughter-in-law (the wife of his son, Dmitry Lukashenka) and spanned for several months encompassing concerts, exhibitions, and other events in all major cities of Belarus.

Lukashenka regards Russia as a key supporter of his regime and a key guarantor of his power. As soon as the date for the Belarusian presidential elections was announced, Russia confirmed its support for its closest ally in the event of mass protests.

Lukashenka was elected for his seventh term as president of Belarus, further consolidating his power. The pro-regime party ‘Belaya Rus’ holds almost half of the seats in the House of Representatives (the lower house of the parliament), while the Council of the Republic (the upper house of parliament) is occupied by Lukashenka’s closest confidants, such as the Speaker of the Council of the Republic, Natalia Kochanova. According to legislation, the president can be impeached by the All-Belarus People’s Assembly for violations of the Constitution, treason, or other serious crimes. However, in April 2024, Lukashenka was elected as the chair of this body. By eliminating any potential political opposition within Belarus and ensuring that state institutions were free from any anti-regime dissent, Lukashenka reorganised the political structure of Belarus to ensure the stability of his regime.

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Unrestrained use of Belarusian airspace by the Russian Armed Forces poses a threat to neighbouring NATO countries Belarus' foreign policy becomes subservient to Russia's foreign and security policy
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