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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Russia allocates enormous resources to the war in Ukraine but still has the means to prepare itself for a protracted confrontation in the Baltic Sea region
Military industry becomes a driving force of the Russian economy
Russian nuclear capability in Belarus
Wagner crisis has pushed Russia towards Volunteer Corps as a new model of military service
Putin’s election as an aspiration for legitimisation, which impacts political agenda
Unexpected challenge of Wagner mutiny the regime managed to overcome
Ideology-driven Russia’s foreign policy fosters global instability
Protracted war makes Russian intelligence officials question the validity and legitimacy of their activities
BELARUS
Belarusian regime’s threat perception is the driving force behind the intense activity of intelligence services against Lithuania
Calm facade of Belarus conceals political repression
Lukashenka builds up Armed Forces in response to regional security situation
Russia allows Minsk to demonstrate its sovereignty on military-security issues but pursues its military policy in Belarus
CHINA
China intensifies intelligence activities against Lithuania from its territory
China collects information and conducts influence activities in foreign countries using the whole-of-society approach
Over the past decade, the CCP has been consistently developing the legislation
Artificial intelligence technologies as the means of China’s pursuit of global technological leadership
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
New malicious actors target important Lithuanian decisions in cyberspace
Aggressive information attacks seek to intimidate Lithuanian society
Russia seeks to circumvent restrictions on its propaganda tools
By spreading propaganda Russia seeks to undermine the will of Western societies to support Ukraine
New Russian history textbooks embody Russia’s strategic goals that threaten regional security
CRISIS REGIONS
After Azerbaijan took control of Nagorno-Karabakh without fighting, Russia lost an important tool for destabilising the region
Western Balkans: heightened tensions in Kosovo will require further efforts by the international community
As the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, Iran’s malign activities threaten the region
Africa: coups, insecurity and declining Western influence in the Sahel
TERRORISM AND MIGRATION
Threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe is growing
Terrorist and extremist organisations use 3D printing and AI
Russian and Belarusian regimes exploit illegal migration facilitated by human smugglers
Human smugglers have taken over the organisation of migration via the Eastern Land Route
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CHINA

Artificial intelligence technologies as the means of China’s pursuit of global technological leadership

Artificial intelligence technologies as the means of China’s pursuit of global technological leadership

China’s strategic goal is becoming the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030. China is developing ambitious plans according to which AI would accelerate its digital revolution and ensure its global dominance in technological race with the US.

Currently, China is using AI technology to analyse big data, process natural language, develop autonomous and other weapons systems. As a result, China is able to exert tighter control over society, to increase the effectiveness of decision-making, to generate a content that could be used for cyberattacks or to strengthen military capabilities. As AI technology is versatile, China is pursuing global dominance in the AI through a complex of measures:

LEGAL FRAMEWORK
Since 2020, China has tightened the regulation of emerging and disruptive technologies and the companies that develop them. In recent year, the National Data Bureau has been established, and measures for management of generative AI services as well as regulations for deepfakes have been introduced. The new regulation strengthens the regime’s efforts to control digital content and data collection and to oversee the application of AI.

THE POLICY OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
A rapid development of AI technology in China is mostly determined by the size of the market, government subsidies for state-owned enterprises and AI projects as well as investment in technology hubs and research laboratories abroad. AI research in China is based on military-civil fusion that integrates different entities from both of these sectors – enterprises, universities, and other non-military institutions.

GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY STANDARDS
In 2023, Xi Jinping announced the launch of the Global AI Governance initiative. The aim of the initiative is to ensure equal rights for different countries in the development of AI technology. However, by initiating global regulations and shaping trends of technological development, China aims to create a favourable technological environment in the long term: the introduction of information and data governance based on state control.

THE DOCTRINE OF INTELLIGENTISED WARFARE
According to Chinese defence plans, conventional warfare is gradually shifting to cognitive warfare, defined as the use of public opinion, psychological and legal means to achieve a victory. Although military actions that directly affect the cognitive function and emotions of an adversary is nothing new, AI makes such means more effective and difficult to detect, and therefore more threatening.

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Over the past decade, the CCP has been consistently developing the legislation INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
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