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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Putin’s decision to go to war with Ukraine evokes totalitarianism in Russia
Russia expects closer economic ties with the CIS countries in the short term
Russia aims to outsuffer Ukraine and the West in a protracted conflict
Russia’s digital and information isolation is growing
The Kaliningrad region remains the biggest threat in Lithuania’s neighbourhood
Iran’s support to the Russian war effort in Ukraine
BELARUS
A. Lukashenka takes part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, albeit does not regard himself as an aggressor
The situation of the Lukashenka regime is dependent on the Kremlin’s success in the war against Ukraine
With the single voting day approaching, the regime’s main short-term objective is to prevent a new wave of protests
CHINA
Russia’s war against Ukraine has not changed Beijing’s goal of strengthening strategic cooperation with Moscow
By pursuing an aggressive policy towards Taiwan, China strives to change the current status quo in their relations
China uses new initiatives to shape the global security agenda and create a counterbalance to western alliances
Xi’s concentration of power in the CCP poses a risk of strategic miscalculations
Internal tensions in China force the regime to search for external enemies, justifying repressions against its society
THE ACTIVITY OF HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY SERVICES
Russian intelligence searches for new methods to collect intelligence in Europe, but its primary focus is the war against Ukraine
Belarusian intelligence services recruit their own nationals fleeing to Lithuania
Authoritarian regimes are changing the model of privatization of military power
CYBER SECURITY
War against Ukraine did not decrease threats in Lithuanian cyber space
Ghostwriter activity against Lithuania in 2020–2022
INFORMATION SECURITY
Lithuania remains a target for Kremlin propaganda
Kremlin tries to exploit Muslim communities in Europe
Kremlin actively strives to preserve its expansionist historical narrative
Pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives designed for Western societies
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Sanctions cause major problems to Russia and its entities that try to bypass them
Technologies being developed in Lithuania may be targeted by hostile foreign actors
Chinese military company covertly tried to acquire technology being developed in Lithuania*
Russia runs out of options to use energy supplies as leverage
Rosatom develops projects abroad, but its technologies are defective
CRISIS REGIONS
Conflicts and climate change deepen the global food crisis
TERRORISM AND MIGRATION
The number of Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe has decreased, but the threat remains high
Right-wing extremism and accelerationism remain a threat in Europe
Illegal immigrants to the EU are still using the route via Belarus
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CHINA

China uses new initiatives to shape the global security agenda and create a counterbalance to western alliances

China uses new initiatives to shape the global security agenda and create a counterbalance to western alliances

The Global Security Initiative (GSI), presented by President Xi, aims at creating an alternative global security architecture. The GSI is based on China’s traditional principles of security and comprehensive National Security concept developed by Xi. It also encompasses the idea of ‘indivisible security’, which has been systematically used by Putin to criticise NATO.

The GSI marks a new stage in the implementation of China’s (geo)strategy. Beijing projects the GSI, the Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at securing economic expansion, and the Global Development Initiative, which would strengthen Beijing’s dominance in international organisations, as a foundation for China’s goal to become a leading power in determining the global security agenda.

China uses various international formats to rally other states’ support to the GSI. It presented its vision at the BRICS Summit and the congress of the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China is also seeking to transfer the GSI provisions into international agreements. For example, the GSI provisions were included into the China–Africa cooperation Vision 2035, the agreement on bilateral security with the Solomon Islands, and the joint Chinese–Belarusian declaration. The GSI has been most favourably received by developing and / or authoritarian states that cultivate strong economic ties with China. Such Chinese position is also welcomed by the countries that are openly antagonistic to the West, such as Russia, Belarus, Iran, and a number of African and South American countries.

China has not defined specific areas of cooperation under the GSI. It is highly likely that in the near and medium term, China will be referring to this initiative in order to bolster cooperation in the military and intelligence domains as well as in counter-terrorism and stand against ‘colour revolutions’. Russia’s and Belarus’ deeper involvement in these areas of cooperation would have a negative impact on Lithuania’s national security interests, because it would enable these regimes to further develop their security apparatus and allocate more resources for repressive measures against their populations. It is highly likely that the procedure of joining the GSI will not be formalised and that the initiative will be mainly supported through joint declarations or other agreements.

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