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If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Russia allocates enormous resources to the war in Ukraine but still has the means to prepare itself for a protracted confrontation in the Baltic Sea region
Military industry becomes a driving force of the Russian economy
Russian nuclear capability in Belarus
Wagner crisis has pushed Russia towards Volunteer Corps as a new model of military service
Putin’s election as an aspiration for legitimisation, which impacts political agenda
Unexpected challenge of Wagner mutiny the regime managed to overcome
Ideology-driven Russia’s foreign policy fosters global instability
Protracted war makes Russian intelligence officials question the validity and legitimacy of their activities
BELARUS
Belarusian regime’s threat perception is the driving force behind the intense activity of intelligence services against Lithuania
Calm facade of Belarus conceals political repression
Lukashenka builds up Armed Forces in response to regional security situation
Russia allows Minsk to demonstrate its sovereignty on military-security issues but pursues its military policy in Belarus
CHINA
China intensifies intelligence activities against Lithuania from its territory
China collects information and conducts influence activities in foreign countries using the whole-of-society approach
Over the past decade, the CCP has been consistently developing the legislation
Artificial intelligence technologies as the means of China’s pursuit of global technological leadership
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
New malicious actors target important Lithuanian decisions in cyberspace
Aggressive information attacks seek to intimidate Lithuanian society
Russia seeks to circumvent restrictions on its propaganda tools
By spreading propaganda Russia seeks to undermine the will of Western societies to support Ukraine
New Russian history textbooks embody Russia’s strategic goals that threaten regional security
CRISIS REGIONS
After Azerbaijan took control of Nagorno-Karabakh without fighting, Russia lost an important tool for destabilising the region
Western Balkans: heightened tensions in Kosovo will require further efforts by the international community
As the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, Iran’s malign activities threaten the region
Africa: coups, insecurity and declining Western influence in the Sahel
TERRORISM AND MIGRATION
Threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe is growing
Terrorist and extremist organisations use 3D printing and AI
Russian and Belarusian regimes exploit illegal migration facilitated by human smugglers
Human smugglers have taken over the organisation of migration via the Eastern Land Route
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CRISIS REGIONS

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, Iran’s malign activities threaten the region

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, Iran’s malign activities threaten the region

The unprecedented Hamas terrorist attack in Israel has changed the course of the Middle East conflict. Until 7 October 2023, the Israeli government had believed it could contain the threat of Palestinian terrorism in the Gaza Strip and tolerated the existence of Hamas. After the attack, Israel vowed to eliminate the group and demilitarise the enclave. This shift significantly reduces the possibility of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and a diplomatic solution.

The security situation in the wider region has deteriorated as the Iranian regime, Hamas’s main foreign backer, continues its campaign of asymmetric warfare. Tehran, keen to maintain plausible deniability, uses various proxies to target Israel and Western interests. Lebanese Hizballah regularly attacks northern Israel. Yemen’s Houthi rebels threaten commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Pro-Iranian elements launch rockets and one-way attack drones at US military bases in the region. These attacks are designed to show solidarity with the Palestinians, harass Israel and US troops without provoking a serious response. They increase the risk of further escalation. However, direct involvement of Iran and its proxies in the Gaza conflict remains unlikely at present.

The Israel-Hamas conflict and various related issues continue to have a global impact. Maritime trade in the Red Sea is being disrupted by Houthi attacks. Societies around the world face rising anti-Semitism, including violent incidents, and Islamophobia. The conflict also shifts part of public attention away from the Russian war against Ukraine, creating additional risks for Kyiv.

IDF operating in Gaza Strip Reuters / Scanpix
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Western Balkans: heightened tensions in Kosovo will require further efforts by the international community Africa: coups, insecurity and declining Western influence in the Sahel
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