Growing instability and third-country influence in Africa

African countries face a growing risk of upheaval, instability, armed conflict, social unrest, and terrorist attacks. Instability is particularly acute in the Sahel region. Attacks by radical Islamist groups continue in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger; they are likely to spread to other West African countries. Citizens of Western countries in the Sahel are at risk of being kidnapped by groups linked to Al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (ISIL).

Sudan is in the second year of a largescale war that caused a major humanitarian crisis, with increased poverty, the risk of famine, and the number of refugees reaching 11.5 million in the second half of 2024. Despite its humanitarian consequences and the impact on the stability of the region, this conflict has received little attention from the international community. With two military factions competing for power, an end to the conflict is highly unlikely. The de facto break-up of the country cannot be ruled out, which would not only exacerbate the humanitarian crisis but also pose the risk of increasing migration to Europe.

African countries are becoming significant geopolitical actors because of their natural resources, growing market, and position in international organisations. As a result, global powers are expanding their ties with African countries. For instance, China focuses on stable economic cooperation, investment, trade, and long-term diplomacy. Russia is stepping up its engagement by offering security cooperation to African countries. It is pursuing a proven low-cost, high-impact strategy while exploiting instability, supporting coups and military regimes. The African Corps under the Russian Ministry of Defence is taking over private military companies operating in Africa. Moreover, Russia is actively spreading disinformation and propaganda against the ‘colonial’ West and portraying itself as fighting for the sovereignty of African states and a more fair multipolar world order. In this way, Russia seeks to strengthen its position in the geopolitical confrontation with the West, gain allies, and reduce its international isolation.