Tensions in the Middle East are expected to remain high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions
Following the attack on Israel by the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas on 7 October 2023, tensions in the region escalated, leading to further geopolitical divisions. In response to continued attacks by Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Israel launched a military operation against the group. It succeeded in destroying a large part of Hezbollah’s arsenal and in eliminating most of its commanders, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah. In neighbouring Syria, the rebels resumed their offensive at the end of 2024, overthrowing the authoritarian Assad regime (supported by Russia and Iran), which had ruled the country for more than half a century.
These events drastically shifted the balance of power in the Middle East. The position of Iran and the unofficial coalition it leads, the ‘Axis of Resistance’, has weakened. The ability of this coalition to undermine Israel and Western interests in the region is severely constrained.
A weakened pro-Iranian wing, the end of the civil war in Syria, and the Israeli ceasefire with Hamas and Hezbollah are the preconditions for a more stable situation in the Middle East. However, the ‘Axis of Resistance’ is not defeated and almost certainly will look for opportunities to confront Israel and the West more actively in the future. The ceasefire in Gaza is fragile and does not address deeper causes of the long-standing conflict. In civil war-torn Syria, the political and security situation remains complex, with divergent interests and visions for the future of the country among various rebel groups. For these reasons, tensions in the Middle East in the near term will remain high.
