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State Security Department
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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Putin’s decision to go to war with Ukraine evokes totalitarianism in Russia
Russia expects closer economic ties with the CIS countries in the short term
Russia aims to outsuffer Ukraine and the West in a protracted conflict
Russia’s digital and information isolation is growing
The Kaliningrad region remains the biggest threat in Lithuania’s neighbourhood
Iran’s support to the Russian war effort in Ukraine
BELARUS
A. Lukashenka takes part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, albeit does not regard himself as an aggressor
The situation of the Lukashenka regime is dependent on the Kremlin’s success in the war against Ukraine
With the single voting day approaching, the regime’s main short-term objective is to prevent a new wave of protests
CHINA
Russia’s war against Ukraine has not changed Beijing’s goal of strengthening strategic cooperation with Moscow
By pursuing an aggressive policy towards Taiwan, China strives to change the current status quo in their relations
China uses new initiatives to shape the global security agenda and create a counterbalance to western alliances
Xi’s concentration of power in the CCP poses a risk of strategic miscalculations
Internal tensions in China force the regime to search for external enemies, justifying repressions against its society
THE ACTIVITY OF HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY SERVICES
Russian intelligence searches for new methods to collect intelligence in Europe, but its primary focus is the war against Ukraine
Belarusian intelligence services recruit their own nationals fleeing to Lithuania
Authoritarian regimes are changing the model of privatization of military power
CYBER SECURITY
War against Ukraine did not decrease threats in Lithuanian cyber space
Ghostwriter activity against Lithuania in 2020–2022
INFORMATION SECURITY
Lithuania remains a target for Kremlin propaganda
Kremlin tries to exploit Muslim communities in Europe
Kremlin actively strives to preserve its expansionist historical narrative
Pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives designed for Western societies
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Sanctions cause major problems to Russia and its entities that try to bypass them
Technologies being developed in Lithuania may be targeted by hostile foreign actors
Chinese military company covertly tried to acquire technology being developed in Lithuania*
Russia runs out of options to use energy supplies as leverage
Rosatom develops projects abroad, but its technologies are defective
CRISIS REGIONS
Conflicts and climate change deepen the global food crisis
TERRORISM AND MIGRATION
The number of Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe has decreased, but the threat remains high
Right-wing extremism and accelerationism remain a threat in Europe
Illegal immigrants to the EU are still using the route via Belarus
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