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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Putin’s decision to go to war with Ukraine evokes totalitarianism in Russia
Russia expects closer economic ties with the CIS countries in the short term
Russia aims to outsuffer Ukraine and the West in a protracted conflict
Russia’s digital and information isolation is growing
The Kaliningrad region remains the biggest threat in Lithuania’s neighbourhood
Iran’s support to the Russian war effort in Ukraine
BELARUS
A. Lukashenka takes part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, albeit does not regard himself as an aggressor
The situation of the Lukashenka regime is dependent on the Kremlin’s success in the war against Ukraine
With the single voting day approaching, the regime’s main short-term objective is to prevent a new wave of protests
CHINA
Russia’s war against Ukraine has not changed Beijing’s goal of strengthening strategic cooperation with Moscow
By pursuing an aggressive policy towards Taiwan, China strives to change the current status quo in their relations
China uses new initiatives to shape the global security agenda and create a counterbalance to western alliances
Xi’s concentration of power in the CCP poses a risk of strategic miscalculations
Internal tensions in China force the regime to search for external enemies, justifying repressions against its society
THE ACTIVITY OF HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY SERVICES
Russian intelligence searches for new methods to collect intelligence in Europe, but its primary focus is the war against Ukraine
Belarusian intelligence services recruit their own nationals fleeing to Lithuania
Authoritarian regimes are changing the model of privatization of military power
CYBER SECURITY
War against Ukraine did not decrease threats in Lithuanian cyber space
Ghostwriter activity against Lithuania in 2020–2022
INFORMATION SECURITY
Lithuania remains a target for Kremlin propaganda
Kremlin tries to exploit Muslim communities in Europe
Kremlin actively strives to preserve its expansionist historical narrative
Pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives designed for Western societies
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Sanctions cause major problems to Russia and its entities that try to bypass them
Technologies being developed in Lithuania may be targeted by hostile foreign actors
Chinese military company covertly tried to acquire technology being developed in Lithuania*
Russia runs out of options to use energy supplies as leverage
Rosatom develops projects abroad, but its technologies are defective
CRISIS REGIONS
Conflicts and climate change deepen the global food crisis
TERRORISM AND MIGRATION
The number of Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe has decreased, but the threat remains high
Right-wing extremism and accelerationism remain a threat in Europe
Illegal immigrants to the EU are still using the route via Belarus
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RUSSIA

Iran’s support to the Russian war effort in Ukraine

Iran’s support to the Russian war effort in Ukraine

  • Publicly Iran maintains a neutral stance towards the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Tehran advocates for a ceasefire and stresses the necessity of diplomatic solution. However, such rhetoric is nothing more than an elaborate attempt to conceal Iranian diplomatic and military support to Russia.
  • The main element of Iranian support to Russia is supply of unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Throughout the course of the conflict, Russia procured hundreds of UAS from Iran, including both multirole UAS and various types of loitering munitions, such as Shahed-136. This loitering munition (rebranded as Geran-2 by Russia) accounts for the majority of UAS transfers from Iran to Russia. It is widely used by the Russian Armed forces to strike military and civilian targets across Ukraine, particularly energy infrastructure, in order to harass Ukrainian population and force it into submission. In addition, heavy use of Shahed-136s allows the Russian Armed forces to mitigate the negative impact of rapidly dwindling stocks of high-precision munitions (Iskander, Kalibr, and other types of missiles).
  • In the diplomatic sphere, Iran’s capabilities to support Russia are limited, but that does not deter Tehran from such attempts. First, Tehran votes according to Moscow’s interests in the United Nations General Assembly on the issues related with Russia’s aggression. Furthermore, high-ranking Iranian officials continually blame NATO for the war in Ukraine. They portray Russia as a victim, which was forced to defend its national interests due to NATO’s provocations. This way Tehran amplifies the Kremlin’s propaganda narratives.
  • By supporting Russia, Iran pursues several goals. It aims to prevent Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine as it would highly likely result in a weaker Russia, whereas Iran needs a strong ally as a counterbalance towards the West. Secondly, the war in Ukraine presents a unique opportunity for Iran to undermine interests of Western states outside the Middle East. Finally, Iran highly likely will use its current provision of assistance as leverage to negotiate favourable terms for future modern weaponry transfers from Russia.
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Taip pat šioje temoje skaitykite
arrow Putin’s decision to go to war with Ukraine evokes totalitarianism in Russia arrow Russia expects closer economic ties with the CIS countries in the short term arrow Russia aims to outsuffer Ukraine and the West in a protracted conflict arrow Russia’s digital and information isolation is growing arrow The Kaliningrad region remains the biggest threat in Lithuania’s neighbourhood
The Kaliningrad region remains the biggest threat in Lithuania’s neighbourhood BELARUS