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REPORT ABOUT THREATS

If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Russian intelligence services conduct sabotage activities to undermine Western support for Ukraine
Russian intelligence uses ‘illegals’ to collect sensitive information
The Putin regime is confident of victory over Ukraine and the West
Despite growing risks to its economy, Russia can still finance the war
Russia continues to strengthen its military power
Temporarily reduced Russian military capabilities in Kaliningrad remain strong
Russia updated its nuclear doctrine
The Russian regime is increasing public and online surveillance
BELARUS
Belarusian intelligence services intensify activities against the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania and increasingly detain Lithuanian citizens in Belarus
A successful operation led to the arrest of two suspects spying for Belarus
Unrestrained use of Belarusian airspace by the Russian Armed Forces poses a threat to neighbouring NATO countries
Re-elected Lukashenka consolidates the authoritarian regime
Belarus' foreign policy becomes subservient to Russia's foreign and security policy
CHINA
China is helping Russia to continue its war against Ukraine
China engages in technological espionage to accelerate economic growth and modernise its military
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Russia seeks to discredit Lithuania, increasingly accusing it of rewriting history, promoting Nazism, and spreading Russophobia
The growing influence of AI on cybersecurity threats
CRISIS REGIONS
Tensions in the Middle East are expected to remain high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions
Iran increasingly targets its adversaries in Europe
Growing instability and third-country influence in Africa
TERRORISM
Terrorist threat to Europe remains high
Propaganda of right-wing extremist ideologies draws young people into violent hate crime groups
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RUSSIA

Russia continues to strengthen its military power

Russia continues to strengthen its military power

Russia’s ability to use military force against NATO countries is currently very limited, as most of its conventional capabilities are dedicated to the war against Ukraine. In the near term, Russia is likely to have sufficient human, financial, and military resources not only to continue fighting in Ukraine at a similar intensity but also to increase its military capabilities.

The development of military capabilities is a top priority for the Russian leadership, and they are allocating significant resources to it. Russia continues to pursue its ambitious military reform plans announced in 2022 which would see a 30–50 percent increase in the number of personnel, weapons, and combat equipment in the Russian Armed Forces in Western direction.

Although Russian officials claim that around 400,000 troops joined the Russian Armed Forces in 2024, the total number of military personnel did not grow so rapidly due to the heavy combat losses. As part of the military reform, Russia plans to increase the number of troops to 1.5 million. Given the current trends in the growth of military personnel, this ambition is feasible and would allow Russia to fill the newly formed units with personnel.

Russia is also focusing on the development of its military industry. While Western sanctions have negatively affected Russia’s military industry (lengthening supply chains for necessary components, increasing the cost, and reducing the quality of military production), the production volume of artillery shells, missiles, and other major categories of ammunition increases every year. The production of ammunition and new military equipment is important not only for the ongoing war but also for restoring the reserves of arms and ammunition that would be needed for a military conflict with NATO.

The further growth of Russia’s military power will depend directly on the course of the war in Ukraine. A reduction in front-line needs could allow Russia to accelerate the build-up of new troops and increase reserves of arms and ammunition.

In the medium term, Russia is unlikely to be able to build up the capabilities needed for a large-scale conventional war against NATO. However, Russia may develop military capabilities sufficient to launch a limited military action against one or several NATO countries. This may encourage the Russian leadership to use military force in the mistaken belief that NATO should not be able to react in time and that Russia should be able to localise the conflict and bring it to a swift and favourable end.

Strengthening the Baltic defence and deploying allied forces on NATO’s Eastern Flank are key factors in deterring Russia from military conflict in our region. This increases the costs of a potential military conflict to Russia and makes it less likely that such a conflict would be localised and would not involve the other members of the Alliance.

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Despite growing risks to its economy, Russia can still finance the war Temporarily reduced Russian military capabilities in Kaliningrad remain strong
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