Temporarily reduced Russian military capabilities in Kaliningrad remain strong

To meet the needs of the military operation in Ukraine and to compensate for losses, Russia is transferring ground troops and combat equipment to Ukraine in large numbers – even from regions closest to NATO, such as the Kaliningrad Region. Naval and air components are less involved in the military action and are used to demonstrate force in the Baltic Sea region.

One of the main episodes of the military power demonstration in 2024 was the large-scale strategic command and staff exercise ‘Okean 2024’ conducted in September, during which the naval and air components played a key role. ‘Okean 2024’ also demonstrated that the A2/AD (anti-access and area denial) developed by Russia in the Baltic Sea region, and especially its air defence capability, although partially degraded, is operational and capable.

The military grouping in the Kaliningrad Region remains capable of performing essential tasks. However, its capacity to carry out landing tasks will remain limited in the medium to long term due to the deployment of landing craft to the Black Sea. The capabilities currently demonstrated by Russia in the event of a military conflict against NATO would not be sufficient to establish dominance but could disrupt NATO’s actions in the Baltic Sea region.