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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Russian intelligence services conduct sabotage activities to undermine Western support for Ukraine
Russian intelligence uses ‘illegals’ to collect sensitive information
The Putin regime is confident of victory over Ukraine and the West
Despite growing risks to its economy, Russia can still finance the war
Russia continues to strengthen its military power
Temporarily reduced Russian military capabilities in Kaliningrad remain strong
Russia updated its nuclear doctrine
The Russian regime is increasing public and online surveillance
BELARUS
Belarusian intelligence services intensify activities against the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania and increasingly detain Lithuanian citizens in Belarus
A successful operation led to the arrest of two suspects spying for Belarus
Unrestrained use of Belarusian airspace by the Russian Armed Forces poses a threat to neighbouring NATO countries
Re-elected Lukashenka consolidates the authoritarian regime
Belarus' foreign policy becomes subservient to Russia's foreign and security policy
CHINA
China is helping Russia to continue its war against Ukraine
China engages in technological espionage to accelerate economic growth and modernise its military
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Russia seeks to discredit Lithuania, increasingly accusing it of rewriting history, promoting Nazism, and spreading Russophobia
The growing influence of AI on cybersecurity threats
CRISIS REGIONS
Tensions in the Middle East are expected to remain high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions
Iran increasingly targets its adversaries in Europe
Growing instability and third-country influence in Africa
TERRORISM
Terrorist threat to Europe remains high
Propaganda of right-wing extremist ideologies draws young people into violent hate crime groups
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RUSSIA

The Russian regime is increasing public and online surveillance

The Russian regime is increasing public and online surveillance

Russia is in the process of establishing a centralised video surveillance system with facial recognition and deploying artificial intelligence (AI) tools to monitor digital content. The official reason for developing these surveillance systems is to improve public security. However, such systems also help the regime to monitor and track down any form of dissent, censor online content, and hinder the formation of any opposition movement.

Russia’s gradually emerging model of mass public surveillance has been frequently compared to China’s social credit system, the world’s most extensive digital control system. As part of this system, China uses a range of digital technologies to control people and analyse their personal data.

Public surveillance

By 2030, Russia intends to integrate all public surveillance with facial recognition capabilities into a centralised data storage and processing system. Data captured by these cameras will then be analysed using facial and image recognition AI systems. In addition to monitoring public spaces, Russia collects biometric data for security and law enforcement agencies to later use them in their investigations.

Facial recognition technology has been integrated into the ‘Face Pay’ biometric payment system, which is used for payments on the Russian metro network. Customers are required to link their photo with bank and metro cards to pay for the services. ‘Face Pay’ was first launched in the Moscow Metro. In 2024, it was subsequently installed in six other Russian cities. It is planned that the technology will be used in all Russian metro stations by the end of 2025.

Internet surveillance

The Russian regime is set to deploy the Internet monitoring system, an integral part of the ‘RuNet’ (the Russian segment of the Internet), with the aim of restricting the country’s access to the global Internet and strengthening the oversight of the local Internet.

Internet monitoring systems, such as the AI-based ‘Oculus’, are used to monitor online content. These systems can recognise images, characters, faces, analyse online conversations, and identify the text present in photos and videos. ‘Oculus’ is employed in Russia for the detection of online content that is prohibited by law, including extremist and pro-Ukrainian narratives, information about illegal events and gatherings, as well as information related to drugs, weapons proliferation, or LGBT+ issues.

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