Terrorist threat to Europe remains high

The terrorist threat to Europe remains significant due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which terrorist organisations such as ISIL, AQ, and others are actively exploiting for their propaganda purposes. The Islamist propaganda disseminates anti-Western narratives, fosters anti-Semitism in Europe, incites violence against Jews, exacerbates societal polarisation, and encourages Muslims residing in the West to engage in Jihad.

In 2024, five attacks were carried out in Switzerland, Germany, and France; and dozens more were planned but prevented. Law enforcement agencies carried out arrests of individuals for disseminating extremist content or propaganda, terrorist financing, and other terrorism-related activities. It is highly likely that terrorist attacks planned or carried out in Europe in 2024 against the Jewish community or Israeli citizens were inspired by Islamist propaganda, as a “revenge against Jews, Christians, their allies in the US, Europe, and around the World for people of Gaza”.

ISIL and AQ are experiencing difficulties in rebuilding their capabilities for coordinated attacks in Europe. Instead, these groups are focusing their efforts on online radicalisation and incitement, with the aim of motivating their Muslim supporters in the West to perpetrate attacks using easily obtainable resources, such as knives, machetes, firearms, vehicles, and arson. The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) is currently regarded as one of ISIL’s most capable branches. Operating in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the North Caucasus, it has presence in both Asia and Europe, where it actively recruits. Individuals associated with ISKP have unsuccessfully attempted to carry out several terrorist attacks in Europe. Its ability to exploit and radicalise Central Asian diaspora in Europe makes ISKP a major threat to the EU.

Encrypted messaging apps, social media, and video platforms are the main tools used by terrorist organisations to disseminate extremist content and recruit followers, especially youth.

Terrorist trends in other European countries indirectly impact on the situation regarding terrorism-related threats in Lithuania. Although Islamist groups or extremist individuals with the intention of carrying out terrorist attacks are not active in Lithuania, Islamist propaganda online poses a constant risk that easily radicalised individuals in Lithuania could adopt extremist views and engage in extremist activities.

In the near term, the threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe is highly likely to remain high due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is encouraging radicalisation among some Muslims. In the near term, lone extremists are likely to carry out attacks in European countries using their own resources and capabilities in public places against gatherings or officials as well as targets associated with Israel and the Jewish community. The likelihood of terrorist attacks organised by radical individuals in Lithuania will remain low in the near term.