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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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RUSSIA

Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war

Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war

Despite Russia’s significant involvement in the hostilities against Ukraine, the military build-up plans announced in December 2022 are gradually being implemented. According to these plans, brigades along the eastern borders of NATO countries are being expanded into divisions and completely new military units are being formed. The Western Military District is divided into the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts (MD). In the Leningrad MD, the 44th Army Corps has been formed, which includes a motorised rifle division under its command. A motorised rifle brigade which was part of the 14th Army Corps has been expanded into a division. Two motorized rifle brigades which were part of the 6th Combined Arms Army have been expanded into divisions. The formation of a new missile brigade armed with Iskander-M missile complexes has also begun in the territory of the Leningrad MD. Similar processes are taking place in the Moscow MD, where a new artillery division has been formed.

The expansion of the Armed Forces in Russia also includes the Kaliningrad Region, which is part of the Leningrad MD. The naval infantry brigade stationed in Kaliningrad is being expanded into a naval infantry division. In the future, the formation of additional units is also planned, which will increase the number of troops and combat equipment deployed in the region. Currently, the Russian military grouping deployed in the Kaliningrad Region remains temporarily weakened. Most of the land component troops and combat equipment have been deployed to fight against Ukraine. The land component units in the Kaliningrad Region are mainly staffed by conscripts and a small number of professional soldiers.

The Kaliningrad Region is also undergoing military infrastructure development, reflecting Russia’s long- term plans in the Baltic Sea region. For several years now, the construction of the over-the-horizon radar station 29B6 ‘Container’ has been ongoing, elements of which are being built in several locations in the region. This facility is designed to detect aircraft and missiles in airspace several thousand kilometres away. Once completed, it will increase Russia’s capabilities to monitor airspace at long range. In addition to this facility, other significant facilities are located on the exclave territory: the Voronezh-DM early warning radar, a new type of arsenal with reinforced concrete storage facilities, a logistics base belonging to Russia’s strategic reserve, and others.

Most of the newly formed units of the Russian Armed Forces are not fully staffed and are being developed in parts due to a lack of military personnel, combat equipment, and infrastructure. The newly formed units and the combat equipment allocated to them do not remain at their home garrisons but are sent to participate in combat operations against Ukraine. Despite heavy losses, the expansion of capabilities allows the continuation of combat operations against Ukraine and demonstrates Russia’s intention to build capabilities that would allow it to wage a large-scale conventional war against NATO.


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Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
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