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REPORT ABOUT THREATS

If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

menu menu Contents
ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY

Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing

Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing

Entities with links to Russia, Belarus or China that pose a threat to our national security pursue their interests in strategically important sectors or projects in Lithuania and other Baltic States. Their efforts are not deterred even when their plans are revealed and prevented from proceeding during the investment screening process.

The Lithuanian financial sector, particularly the cryptocurrency segment, remains an attractive target for such entities. Russian citizens seeking to engage in the cryptocurrency sector attempt to conceal their affiliations with Russia, often by using citizenships of a NATO or EU member state.

Companies with links to Russia and Belarus, as well as individual citizens of these countries, have so far been interested in Lithuania’s transport and energy sectors. They are also showing an increasing interest in the high-tech sector. They are constantly changing their tactics and looking for new opportunities to gain access to sectors or infrastructure of strategic importance. One method of achieving this is to establish business contacts with entrepreneurs from other European countries or the US, convincing them that the cooperation will yield significant returns, while avoiding direct participation in the initiative. These entities require reliable entrepreneurs from other countries to conceal their involvement and create a positive image. When their plans fail in Lithuania, they try to implement them in other Baltic States.

Russian entities remain interested in disrupting strategically important projects in Lithuania and other Baltic States. Recently, Russian institutions have been paying a close attention to transport projects implemented by the Baltic States. It is highly likely that these institutions are interested in disrupting the projects in order to limit military mobility in the Baltic States.

Russian intelligence services likely will attempt to collect information about the infrastructure of the Port of Klaipėda and the strategically important cargo handled there by exploiting foreign-registered ship crew members. According to the intelligence, pro-Russian individuals belonging to crews of ships visiting the port have on several occasions photographed the port infrastructure and sensitive cargo. Russian intelligence services possibly would be willing to use the obtained information to plan sabotage or other kinetic operations.

Although the Baltic States have implemented projects aimed at securing their energy independence, Russian entities remain active in pursuing influence within the regional energy sector. They are developing new strategies to resume supplying the Baltic States with Russian energy resources and are looking for individuals who can help them to achieve these goals. While these strategies are unlikely to succeed, the active pursue of these interests likely will continue in the near term.

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Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
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