The Lukashenka regime supports Russia’s war against Ukraine by allowing Russia to use Belarusian territory, airspace, and infrastructure. Lukashenka has deployed units of the Belarusian Armed forces close to the Ukrainian border, but he is unwilling to commit Belarusian troops to direct engagement in Ukraine.
In the event of a military conflict with NATO, Russia would have unrestricted access to Belarusian territory, airspace, and infrastructure. Moscow would receive necessary military support from Minsk.
As Lukashenka’s main aim is to stay in power, the regime will avoid any unpopular decisions while maintaining control of society and political repression.