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INTRODUCTION

FOREWORD

SUMMARY

RUSSIA

Putin’s decision to go to war with Ukraine evokes totalitarianism in Russia

Russia expects closer economic ties with the CIS countries in the short term

Russia aims to outsuffer Ukraine and the West in a protracted conflict

Russia’s digital and information isolation is growing

The Kaliningrad region remains the biggest threat in Lithuania’s neighbourhood

Iran’s support to the Russian war effort in Ukraine

BELARUS

A. Lukashenka takes part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, albeit does not regard himself as an aggressor

The situation of the Lukashenka regime is dependent on the Kremlin’s success in the war against Ukraine

With the single voting day approaching, the regime’s main short-term objective is to prevent a new wave of protests

CHINA

Russia’s war against Ukraine has not changed Beijing’s goal of strengthening strategic cooperation with Moscow

By pursuing an aggressive policy towards Taiwan, China strives to change the current status quo in their relations

China uses new initiatives to shape the global security agenda and create a counterbalance to western alliances

Xi’s concentration of power in the CCP poses a risk of strategic miscalculations

Internal tensions in China force the regime to search for external enemies, justifying repressions against its society

THE ACTIVITY OF HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY SERVICES

Russian intelligence searches for new methods to collect intelligence in Europe, but its primary focus is the war against Ukraine

Belarusian intelligence services recruit their own nationals fleeing to Lithuania

Authoritarian regimes are changing the model of privatization of military power

CYBER SECURITY

War against Ukraine did not decrease threats in Lithuanian cyber space

Ghostwriter activity against Lithuania in 2020–2022

INFORMATION SECURITY

Lithuania remains a target for Kremlin propaganda

Kremlin tries to exploit Muslim communities in Europe

Kremlin actively strives to preserve its expansionist historical narrative

Pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives designed for Western societies

ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY

Sanctions cause major problems to Russia and its entities that try to bypass them

Technologies being developed in Lithuania may be targeted by hostile foreign actors

Chinese military company covertly tried to acquire technology being developed in Lithuania*

Russia runs out of options to use energy supplies as leverage

Rosatom develops projects abroad, but its technologies are defective

CRISIS REGIONS

Conflicts and climate change deepen the global food crisis

TERRORISM AND MIGRATION

The number of Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe has decreased, but the threat remains high

Right-wing extremism and accelerationism remain a threat in Europe

Illegal immigrants to the EU are still using the route via Belarus

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BELARUS

A. Lukashenka takes part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, albeit does not regard himself as an aggressor

The situation of the Lukashenka regime is dependent on the Kremlin’s success in the war against Ukraine

With the single voting day approaching, the regime’s main short-term objective is to prevent a new wave of protests

The Lukashenka regime supports Russia’s war against Ukraine by allowing Russia to use Belarusian territory, airspace, and infrastructure. Lukashenka has deployed units of the Belarusian Armed forces close to the Ukrainian border, but he is unwilling to commit Belarusian troops to direct engagement in Ukraine.

In the event of a military conflict with NATO, Russia would have unrestricted access to Belarusian territory, airspace, and infrastructure. Moscow would receive necessary military support from Minsk.

As Lukashenka’s main aim is to stay in power, the regime will avoid any unpopular decisions while maintaining control of society and political repression.

Russia

China

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8 700 70 007

BELARUS