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If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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RUSSIA

Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile

Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile

Russia is conducting a propaganda campaign related to the development of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, emphasising the missile’s striking power and thus seeking to inflate the capabilities of its military industry. At the end of 2024, Russia’s Armed Forces used an intermediate-range ballistic missile for the first time in the war against Ukraine, which Putin described as a completely new hypersonic missile called the Oreshnik.

Russia’s public communication about its development is intended to pressure the West to reduce its support for Ukraine and Kyiv, and to refrain from decisive actions against Russian aggression.

One of the most important elements of the communication about the Oreshnik is a public announcement of Oreshnik deployment in Belarus in December 2025. Russia presents this decision as a response to the US plans to deploy the Typhon ground-based missile system in Germany on an episodic basis from 2026. However, the deployment of the Oreshnik in Belarus will not significantly impact the security of Lithuania, as the missile range is already sufficient to reach targets in our region from Russian territory.

The Oreshnik missile complex deployed in Belarus belongs to Russia’s strategic missile forces, so Russia will retain full control over it and gain another lever in its relations with Minsk.


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During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
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