Russia is increasing its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders and continues to implement the Armed Forces reforms, which includes plans to expand brigades into divisions and form entirely new military units.
Russia’s economic growth is slowing down, forcing the country to adjust its current economic model, but it is not abandoning its military ambitions. With the main contributor to the federal budget – oil and gas sector revenues – declining, Russia is trying to stabilise its public finances by increasing taxes on businesses and residents.
The increased use of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) poses a threat to NATO countries. Russia’s intensified production and use of UAVs in the war against Ukraine has led to an increase in violations of the airspace of Lithuania and other NATO countries. Some UAVs entering Ukrainian territory deviate from their original flight path due to technical malfunctions or effects of electronic warfare (EW) measures and fly into the territory of other countries.
Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Russian Federal Security Service has prioritised the collection of military and Ukraine-related intelligence. By exploiting individuals travelling from Lithuania to Russia, the service collects information on the movement of Lithuanian and NATO Allies’ forces, military equipment and personnel in Lithuania, foreign troops and military exercises.
Russia is seeking to protect its shadow fleet by warships escorting its tankers and displaying force in response to any attempts by Western authorities to inspect them. Due to these actions, the situation in the Baltic Sea will highly likely remain tense.
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