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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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RUSSIA

Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion

Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion

Since the start of the war, the Russian leadership has mobilised significant administrative and financial resources to expand the production of weapons and equipment needed for the war. As a result, the military industry currently meets at least the minimum requirements in all areas of armaments. Meanwhile, modernisation continues and new production capacities are being built in various sectors (in 2025, military industry companies mainly hired engineers to commission new equipment). The results of these investments will be visible after more time and will have long-term consequences. After the war, Russia’s military-industrial complex will move on to the next stage of development, with the state continuing to support areas necessary for long-term confrontation. As funding is reallocated, some of the bloated military-related industries will have to reorient themselves or shrink. This will also have consequences for global security – there will be a surplus of weapons that could be used in conflicts around the world.

Import substitution (or technological sovereignty) is one of Moscow’s top priorities and will remain so after the war. Russia has managed to find quite a few alternatives to Western technologies, doing that in a targeted manner. For example, military industry companies are required to prove that there are no alternatives on the Russian market prior to purchasing foreign components.

However, in some areas, particularly electronic components needed for high technology, Russia’s dependence is enormous and long-term. Russia’s modernisation requires high-precision Western-made devices and equipment, the production of which would require decades of investment. Russia is acquiring some of these technologies from China, but the Russian leadership also considers its growing dependence on China to be risky.

Although it is unlikely that Russia will catch up with the West in the field of high technology even in the long term, its technological resilience to Western sanctions is highly likely to increase in the medium term.


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