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REPORT ABOUT THREATS

If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

menu menu Contents
ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY

Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies

Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies

Russia and Belarus are seeking to acquire and further develop Western dual-use technologies via companies based in other countries. Their interest in obtaining Western technologies will remain particularly high, since they are highly unlikely to achieve technological sovereignty in the near term despite their efforts to reduce their dependence on Western technologies.

Intelligence suggests that entities with links to the Russian and Belarusian military industries have used Lithuanian-based companies NTLab and Kosminis Vytis. The companies operated in the strategically important high-tech sector, while also cooperating with the entities in Russia and Belarus that support their respective military industries.

NTLab and Kosminis Vytis were founded by the Belarusian citizen Dmitry Tcherniakovski, who ran the companies together with his children, Nikolay and daughter Daria. Contrary to their claims, they did not sever their links with Russia and Belarus while developing their activities in Lithuania. They ran companies there and maintained ties with the entities connected to the Russian and Belarusian military industries. Nikolay Tcherniakovski headed the companies Navitron and Sainstech in Russia. The group of companies managed by the Tcherniakovskis also included the Belarusian companies SoftSistemz, NaviIS, and MikroDizain.

Russian and Belarusian companies that were part of the NTLab group participated in the development of military programmes and cooperated with the entities belonging to the Russian and Belarusian military industries, such as the Belarusian Military Academy, the scientific-technical centre LEMT, the Skolkovo High Technology Park, the Russian scientific and technical centre Modul, the Russian company Mikron and others. Most of these entities are subject to international sanctions.

NTLab and Kosminis Vytis informed their customers and partners that they were Lithuanian companies with no links to Russia or Belarus. However, this was merely a cover to pursue their interests. The activities and connections of these companies in Russia and Belarus posed a threat to national security interests by enabling Russian and Belarusian military industries to acquire technologies developed in Lithuania and elsewhere, thereby contributing to strengthening of the regimes.

Following an initiative by Lithuanian intelligence in the spring of 2025, the Commission for Coordination of Protection of Objects Critical for National Security assessed the companies’ compliance with national security interests. Both companies were found to be incompatible with these interests and were prohibited from continuing their activities in the high-tech sector.

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Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
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