Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate

The Orthodox Church plays a significant role in shaping and supporting ideological narratives of the Russian regime. Russia employs the Orthodox Church to spread the idea of the ‘Russian world’ and strengthen its influence in foreign countries, particularly those with sizeable Orthodox and Russian-speaking populations. Due to its strictly hierarchical structure, the Moscow Patriarchate exerts significant influence over its subordinate dioceses abroad. Subordination of the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania to the Patriarchate enables Russia to extend its reach within the Lithuanian Orthodox community.

The support of Patriarch Kirill of Moscow for Russia’s war against Ukraine prompted some clergymen of the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania to express their negative stance on the aggression. In response to pressure from public and the faithful, the diocese’s leadership publicly condemned the war and repeatedly announced its strive for greater independence from the Moscow Patriarchate. However, no significant changes have occurred in this regard so far.

The diocese’s leadership has officially expressed its strive for independence and requested the Moscow Patriarchate to grant it partial self-government status. Contrary to the claims of the diocese’s representatives, this status is neither exclusive nor close to autonomy, and it does not permit independent decision-making. Even if the diocese had been granted this status, the Patriarchate would still have significant influence over the most important management decisions, including the appointment of church leaders, the formation of management bodies, and the approval of court decisions. All Patriarchate decisions would also continue to apply to the diocese. We assess that the Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania is seeking partial self-government in order to avoid public criticism of its subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate while still remaining entirely under its influence.

The subordination of the Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania was discussed at a meeting of the Holy Synod of the Moscow Patriarchate. However, until now the Patriarchate has not granted greater autonomy to the diocese. On the contrary, in response to the diocese’s public statements about its strive for greater independence, the leadership of the Patriarchate has established a division charged with maintaining control of overseas dioceses subordinate to the patriarchate.

The leadership of the Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania has so far sought to project an image of independence. They have avoided emphasising their subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate and refrained from publicly expressing support for Russia. The establishment of a new Orthodox church structure, the Exarchate of the Patriarchate of Constantinople in Lithuania, has consolidated the clergy of the Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania, encouraging them to play a more active role in retaining and attracting new members to their community. The leadership of the Moscow Patriarchate is monitoring the expansion of the church subordinate to the Patriarchate of Constantinople in Lithuania. We assess that the Moscow Patriarchate views this development as a threat to its interests and will therefore attempt to limit the activities of the newly established church and maintain its influence over the Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania.