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If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace

Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace

With Russia’s massive use of UAV attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, some of drones deviate from their flight paths due to technical malfunctions or the effects of EW measures and violate the airspace of neighbouring countries.

On July 10 and 28, 2025, two Russian UAVs Gerbera crashed on the territory of Lithuania. The UAV that crashed in Lithuania on July 28, had a high-explosive fragmentation charge and a navigation system with increased resistance to electronic warfare. Both UAVs entered Lithuanian airspace accidentally.

The likelihood of incidents increases due to the rising production and use of UAVs by Russia. Compared to previous years, the production of certain types of UAVs increased 2 to 10 times in 2025. Developed production capacities allowed Russia to increase the scale of UAV strikes against Ukraine from approximately 300 in early 2024 to more than 6,000 in July 2025. The production of long-range UAVs (Geran-2 and Gerbera types) increased from 500 units in 2024 to 5,000-6,000 units a month in 2025.

UAV and combat ammunition found after the crashes in Lithuania on July 10 and 28. Images by Lithuanian Armed Forces and Defence Intelligence and Security Service
UAV and combat ammunition found after the crashes in Lithuania on July 10 and 28.
Images by Lithuanian Armed Forces and Defence Intelligence and Security Service
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The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
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