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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership

Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership

Joint Chinese and Russian military exercises and patrols continued even as Russia is still at war with Ukraine. In recent years, joint military manoeuvres started being held not only in the South China Sea but also in the Arctic region. The exercises have often been carried out near Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Alaska, significantly increasing pressure on the US and NATO partners in the region.

By allowing Chinese military ships to enter its Arctic territories, Russia is likely making concessions to Beijing and revising its previous policy of restricting China’s military activity in the northern regions of the country in return for China’s support during Russia’s war against Ukraine. It is almost certain that China is seeking to establish a longterm military presence in the region.

In joint military drills, the Chinese army is learning from the experience gained by Russia in its war against Ukraine, while Moscow, with Beijing’s support, has showed that Russia is not isolated and can challenge Western dominance on several fronts at once.

Joint military exercises and patrols in the Indian and Pacific Oceans demonstrate the growing strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow aimed at deterring opponents — especially the US and its allies — and changing the regional security architecture.

The most significant joint Chinese-Russian military manoeuvres in 2024–2025:

  • In July 2024, the first joint patrol by Chinese and Russian military Air Forces was observed near the coast of Alaska.
  • In October 2024, Chinese Coast Guard ships patrolling with Russian forces entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time.
  • In August 2025, joint submarine patrol was conducted for the first time in the seas of Japan and East China.

Farewell ceremony in Vladivostok for Chinese and Russian military ships leaving to participate in joint naval and air force exercises ‘Northern / Interaction-2024’ in the seas of Japan and Okhotsk. IMAGO / SNA photo
Farewell ceremony in Vladivostok for Chinese and Russian military ships leaving to participate in joint naval and air force exercises ‘Northern / Interaction-2024’ in the seas of Japan and Okhotsk.
IMAGO / SNA photo
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China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
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