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REPORT ABOUT THREATS

If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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RUSSIA

It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary

It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary

International sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet have disrupted Russia’s strategy and reduced the profits Russian companies derive from trading in energy resources. However, a large part of the shadow fleet still uses the Baltic Sea route to export oil and oil products, accounting for 40 percent of Russian oil exports by sea.

Russia’s shadow fleet consists of up to 1,000 ships worldwide, transporting Russian oil and liquefied gas. This is an important tool for Russia to sell raw materials, bypassing the price cap set by sanctions and thus securing additional revenue needed to finance the war against Ukraine.

Crews of these ships seek to conceal the origin of their cargo by turning off Automatic Identification System or manipulating data by transmitting false location coordinates. Other evasion tactics, such as transferring cargo from ship to ship on the high seas, pose environmental risks. Complex ownership and management structures are used to conceal true owners of the tankers.

Russia has taken additional measures to ensure an uninterrupted operation of its shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea. It is almost certain that for Russia to not allow Western authorities to inspect its shadow fleet tankers or their crews is of utmost importance. It is highly likely that Russia is determined to use military means to achieve this. There are increasing cases of more aggressive displays of force, including unsafe manoeuvres near NATO military ships and aircraft. In 2025, shadow fleet tankers in the Baltic Sea were accompanied not only by Russian warships but also by its Su-35S and Su-30SM fighter jets, which were taking risks and violating the airspace of NATO countries. For example, in May 2025, a Russian Su-35S multi-role fighter violated Estonian airspace while escorting an unflagged tanker Jaguar, subject to international sanctions. Russia’s aggressive behaviour in protecting its shadow fleet tankers increases the risk of incidents in the Baltic Sea.

Although ship incidents in the Baltic Sea in 2023–2025 involving damage to strategically important underwater infrastructure are not linked to deliberate actions by crews of ships calling at Russian seaports, the infrastructure stretching across the Baltic Sea remains vulnerable. Incidents caused by a combination of circumstances, such as poor weather conditions, technical defects in ships, and irresponsible attitudes towards navigation, are possible.

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Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
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