Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters

Russia’s objectives in its war against Ukraine remain unchanged. Despite efforts to bring Russia to peace talks and sporadic statements by its officials about their willingness to end the war, Russia shows no desire for compromise. Russia’s ongoing offensive aims at seizing as much of Ukrainian territory as possible as well as subjugating Ukraine and changing the balance of power in Europe. Vladimir Putin likely believes that he has more will and ability to mobilise resources to achieve these goals than Ukraine and its supporters do.

As the contacts between Russia and the US intensify, European countries supporting Ukraine have become the main target in Russia’s rhetoric. Russia now regards Europe, which is seeking to strengthen its defence capabilities, as a growing direct military threat and a likely major obstacle to its imperial ambitions.

Russia is increasing its hostile activities against European countries and likely is less concerned about the exposure of its covert operations and the consequences of its actions, including human casualties. It exploits these activities for propaganda purposes, using them to justify its actions, to blame NATO and the West for allegedly prolonging the war in Ukraine, to spread fear of war and chaos among European societies and cause erosion of trust in national decisions and institutions.

Russia employs measures that have a significant psychological impact using minimal resources. These actions are hard to counter, as they pursue various opportunistic objectives and are carried out by intermediaries belonging to vulnerable groups within European societies.

Not only is the Russian regime hostile towards European countries, but it also seeks to distance itself from all democratic countries. By disseminating anti-Western propaganda to domestic and international audiences, it aims to increase Russia’s informational and cultural isolation. The regime firmly believes that the country would function better in a ‘new’ world order, cooperating with China and the Global South countries – the so-called ‘global majority’ – while confronting the West.

The regime retains sufficient resources to militarise the economy and society and is prepared to neutralise potential social and political instability through repression, propaganda, and long-term indoctrination.

Economic problems are unlikely to have a substantial impact on Russia’s aggressive foreign policy, suggesting that Russia likely will pursue a breakthrough in its war against Ukraine in the short term. It will use all available tools to increase pressure on European countries to reduce their support for Ukraine. This will include encouraging internal divisions, threatening war, undermining the unity of European countries, and sowing discord between Europe and the US and other international partners.