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REPORT ABOUT THREATS

If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

menu menu Contents
ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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BELARUS

Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania

Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania

The Belarusian regime constantly adapts its tactics to counter political opponents and their supporters, as well as neighbouring countries and their citizens who criticise the regime’s illegal actions. The regime uses extremist watchlists that include anyone involved in opposition activities or in criticising Lukashenka and his policies. These watchlists are aimed at not only combatting opponents but also intimidating and controlling society. Since 2020, the majority of individuals added to the lists have been convicted on political grounds of criticising the regime or having links to the Belarusian democratic opposition. Hundreds of individuals, organisations and other entities are added to the list every month. These not only include individuals and entities from Belarus but also from foreign countries, such as Lithuania, who criticise the Belarusian regime and express support for the democratic opposition. In July 2025, the Russian-language Delfi Litva YouTube channel, which has over 100,000 subscribers, was designated as extremist in Belarus. This was likely due to a published interview with Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a representative of the Belarusian democratic opposition. Subscribers to this channel are likely to face administrative arrest when travelling to Belarus.

The Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) conducts interviews and checks on individuals travelling from Lithuania to Belarus, including inspection of their mobile devices. In search of information relevant to Belarusian intelligence, KGB officers look for links to organisations and references to online sources that have been declared extremist, including evidence of subscriptions to them. The Belarusian regime considers even distant links to such entities as sufficient grounds for detaining individuals, arresting them, and adding them to extremist watchlists.

In August 2024, a Lithuanian citizen was detained and imprisoned in Belarus. He was the administrator of social media channels that criticised the Belarusian regime and were added to the extremist watchlists in 2022. During his period of incarceration, the Lithuanian citizen was subjected to constant psychological pressure by the KGB. He underwent a polygraph test and was interrogated on multiple occasions. During the imprisonment, he was threatened that if he refused to comply with the KGB’s orders, his wife would be detained and charged with colluding with Lithuanian intelligence, and their children would be placed into foster care.

The KGB pressured the Lithuanian citizen to participate in propaganda interviews that portrayed the Belarusian regime positively, to appear in videos that discredited Lithuania, and make phone calls to Lithuanian institutions. During the calls, representatives of Lithuanian institutions were provoked to comment on Lithuanian-Belarusian relations. It is highly likely that the KGB planned to use recordings of these calls for propaganda activities against Lithuania. The videos were intended to discredit the deployment of NATO troops in Lithuania, portray Lithuanian institutions negatively, and present the Belarusian regime positively.

Not only does the Belarusian regime resort to the intimidation by using extremist watchlists to counter the democratic opposition and repress political opponents. Belarusian intelligence also recruits members of the diaspora residing in Lithuania to gather information on the diaspora, the democratic opposition and their activities. The KGB has been increasingly recruiting agents among Belarusians living in Lithuania via messaging apps. In return for information, the KGB offers financial payments, the opportunity to obtain a newly issued passport and the freedom to visit Belarus, as well as safety for those who return to live there. The KGB also blackmails the recruited members of the diaspora. Those who refuse to cooperate are subjected to psychological pressure, primarily by threatening to confiscate their property in Belarus and endanger the safety of relatives who remain there.


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Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation CHINA
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