Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation

In recent years, the Belarusian regime has been making significant efforts to strengthen its cooperation with China due to international sanctions and isolation. Minsk is keen on attracting more Chinese investment, expanding bilateral trade, and developing the Great Stone industrial park, as well as strengthening ties in technology and infrastructure development. The representatives of Belarusian and Chinese governments hold regular meetings at various levels to discuss opportunities for cooperation in these areas.

Although economic cooperation with China is becoming increasingly important for Belarus, China is becoming more cautious in this area. Over the past five years, direct investment in Belarus has declined significantly, as China has shifted towards safer forms of financial cooperation, such as loans. Bilateral trade is growing, but the trade balance is significantly more favourable to China.

Belarus’s increasing support for China’s foreign policy and deepening ties in security cooperation in exchange for economic partnership is a noticeable trend. Cooperation in the security field between the countries is likely to pose challenges in the region, as they will encourage closer collaboration between Chinese and Belarusian intelligence services and create favourable conditions for the Minsk regime to strengthen its control over Belarusian society and the country’s security apparatus.

Russia is almost certain to remain tolerant of these ties as long as they serve its interests in the context of the war in Ukraine. Russia highly likely is levering the ties between Belarus and China to procure sanctioned items and mitigate the impact of restrictions on its economy. China highly likely prioritises maintaining good relations with Russia and therefore does not seek to challenge its influence in Belarus.