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REPORT ABOUT THREATS

If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA

Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them

Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them

Although international sanctions and national restrictions have reduced Russia’s ability to disseminate propaganda in Lithuania, it has not abandoned the goal to influence Lithuania’s information space. Russian propaganda narratives directed against Lithuania remain unchanged, but they are increasingly being disseminated in disguised forms. The aim is to create the impression that pro-Russian messages originate from within Lithuanian society. In the Lithuanian context, social networks have become primary means for Russia to disseminate propaganda. They allow Russia to circumvent restrictions applied to propaganda channels, facilitating the implementation of targeted operations and long-term campaigns aimed at instilling distrust in state institutions, fomenting discord, eroding confidence in NATO, and discrediting support for Ukraine. Social media algorithms enable rapid spread of information, and Russian propaganda channels often exploit the credibility of independent news sites or influencers by impersonating them.

We assess that Russia is adapting to the changes in how information is consumed and is actively using TikTok to disseminate its narratives to a broader audience. Russian propaganda on Tik-Tok comes in the form of entertaining videos, memes, and audio tracks that conceal a message serving Russia’s interests. The aim is to engage young people and influence their opinions on significant political and social issues, as well as to erode their trust in traditional news sources. TikTok frequently employs narratives that seek to discredit Lithuanian history, undermine national identity, and cast doubts on the future of the state. Since 2022, Russia has repeatedly accused the Baltic States of systematically distorting the history of World War II, glorifying Nazi collaborators, persecuting Russian speakers on ethnic and political grounds, and destroying Russian culture. These and other long-standing narratives in Russian propaganda that discredit Lithuania have been shaped by the Russian Presidential Administration. This institution occupies a central place in the Russian propaganda hierarchy and is the most important in the Kremlin regime.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs plays a key role in disseminating accusations of Russophobia within international institutions. Through public statements and diplomatic channels, the ministry seeks to highlight the alleged Russophobic policies of the Baltic States. Every year, the Russian Foreign Ministry prepares reports on the human rights situation in other countries. In these reports, the Baltic States are labelled the most Russophobic, with Lithuania accused of violating the rights of Russian speakers, persecuting dissidents, and falsifying history on a systemic level.

These accusations are supported by front organisations established to spread Russian influence, such as academic institutions, foundations, and analytical centres that conduct pseudoscientific research in line with the Kremlin’s narrative. Their task is to demonstrate that the Baltic States support Nazi ideology and pursue Russophobic policies. Such organisations include the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University; the Foundation for the Support and Protection of the Rights of Compatriots Living Abroad, established by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its subordinate federal agency Rossotrudnichestvo; and the Historical Memory Fund (established at the initiative of the Russian Presidential Administration). These organisations hold conferences, exhibitions and other events dedicated to the Baltic States in Russia. Pro-Russian figures from Lithuania are often invited to speak at these events, where Russia’s fabricated accusations are presented as expert assessments. We assess that Russia is exploiting these accusations in an attempt to exert pressure on Lithuania and other Baltic States within international organisations. By repeatedly accusing the Baltic States of violating the rights of Russian speakers and glorifying Nazism, Russia is likely seeking to justify its aggressive foreign policy and geopolitical interests.


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Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
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