SUMMARY

It resorts not only to diplomatic pressure but also employs violent actions against countries that do not align with Russia’s interests. Russia almost certainly is trying to influence Western societies, increase distrust in state institutions, and force political leaders to weaken support for Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s perceived superiority over Ukraine-supporting Western democracies almost certainly will drive its war efforts until it secures substantial concessions. International pressure has no effect on Russia’s position, and its strengthening alliances with Iran and North Korea indicate that in its confrontation with the West, Russia is willing to collaborate with any ally or use every possible means.

The conflict forces Russian leadership to allocate significant financial resources for the war effort, but Russia will not only be able to maintain a similar level of war funding in the near term but is likely to further increase it. Current military spending has a negative effect on Russia’s economy, but it has no impact on the Kremlin’s foreign and security policy. The Putin regime considers itself to be in full control of domestic situation, and threats to its stability are unlikely in the short term.

Despite the losses suffered in the war in Ukraine, Russia continues to increase its military personnel, devote significant attention and resources to the development of its military industry, and pursue its ambitious military reform.

Russia is transferring ground troops and combat equipment to Ukraine even from the regions closest to NATO, including the Kaliningrad Region. However, although the involvement of Kaliningrad’s naval and air components in the military action is weaker, they would be sufficient to disrupt NATO’s actions in the Baltic Sea region in the event of a conflict.

In the near term he will seek to be recognised by the West as legitimate head of the state. Belarus is providing increasing support for the Kremlin’s international policy initiatives; it will remain Russia’s closest ally and will not change its strategic decision.

Lithuanian citizens are illegally detained and prosecuted for their political views and criticism of the Belarusian regime. These regime’s actions are stimulated by the intension to exert pressure on Lithuania for it to reconsider its policy towards Belarus, and to reinforce the narrative of Belarus surrounded by hostile countries.

Beijing’s support is driven by the belief that the Putin regime should not lose the war and the assessment that the war aligns with China’s interests as it presents a challenge to the West by draining its resources. Strengthening economic, energy, and military cooperation between China and Russia will not only result in Kremlin’s significantly increased ability to continue the war but will deepen Russia’s dependency on China.

Using its proven low-cost, high-impact strategy of exploiting instability and propping up military regimes as well as actively spreading disinformation and propaganda against the West, Moscow seeks to strengthen its position in the continent, gain allies, and reduce its international isolation.

They spread anti-Western and anti-Semitic narratives, seek to exacerbate social polarisation, and encourage Muslims living in the West to engage in Jihad. Terrorist trends in other European countries have an impact on terrorism-related threats in Lithuania, as Islamist online propaganda poses a risk that easily radicalised individuals in Lithuania may adopt extremist views.