SUMMARY
At the same time, Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO and has embarked on a major reform of its Armed Forces. Its full implementation will take from at least several years to a decade.
The Russian economy is holding up better than expected thanks to high oil prices, state investment in the military industry, and the ability to circumvent sanctions. Military industry is becoming a driving force of Russia’s economy at the expense of other sectors.
However, the Wagner munity revealed that the regime was slow to react to the developing situation and that Russian society remained indifferent to the power struggle. The Russian presidential election remains a significant event to the Kremlin and serves as a tool to demonstrate the legitimacy of Putin’s power and the public approval of the regime’s policies. With a new mandate, the Kremlin is more likely to take unpopular decisions in the post-election period.
In its relations with the West, Russia’s main objective is to undermine Western support for Ukraine by resorting to blackmail and threats. International isolation forces Russia to develop relations with the Global South, not only to secure alternative trade and logistics routes but also to form an anti-Western coalition with Russia as its leader.
Belarusian intelligence uses questionings of people who travel from Lithuania to Belarus and a growing Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania for its activities against Lithuania.
The Kremlin is allowing Lukashenka to display a semblance of sovereignty and parity in decision-making. However, Russia seeks to maintain and increase its control over Minsk by building up a non-strategic nuclear weapons capability in Belarus and by establishing conditions for a sustained military presence through legal means.
Its intelligence services increasingly use social networks to establish and maintain contact with potential targets as well as cyber espionage against Lithuania. Chinese intelligence priorities are Lithuania’s internal affairs, political divisions, and foreign policy. In the short term, Chinese intelligence services likely will seek to collect information on Lithuanian national elections, both presidential and parliamentary as well as the European Parliament election.
These aggressive information operations are aimed at spreading fear among society members and disrupting work of state institutions. Russia’s information policy is likely to intensify further, with new information attacks focused on elections, regional conflicts and support for Ukraine.
The Islamist propaganda disseminated by international terrorist organisations contributes to the increased probability of terrorist attacks. The main risk comes from lone radicalised individuals motivated not only by traditional Islamist propaganda narratives but also the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East.