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If you know of information that you think is related to national security threats – that there is a threat or there may be a threat – immediately inform the State Security Department (VSD) about it.

menu menu Contents
ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY

Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border

Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border

The Belarusian government is determined to build a third unit at the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), in addition to the existing two units. It justifies the construction of Unit 3 on the basis of the country’s allegedly ever-growing electricity demand, emphasising the success of the Belarusian NPP. However, the implementation of this project is not economically viable, given that the current units at the Belarusian NPP are not operating at full capacity.

The Belarusian authorities were also considering the construction of a fourth unit at the Belarusian NPP site or a new nuclear power plant in the Mogilev region. It is possible that Belarus will also see an opportunity to implement these projects.

Russia welcomes and supports Belarus’s plans to develop nuclear energy, which would be implemented by the Russian corporation Rosatom. These plans would deepen Belarus’s energy dependence, which is in line with Russian interests. The Kremlin has expressed support for Belarus’s decision to build a third unit at the Belarusian NPP site and has also urged Minsk not to abandon the plans for building a new nuclear power plant in the Mogilev region. This issue has been a regular topic of discussion at meetings between Rosatom and the Belarusian government.

Despite the plans to develop nuclear energy, the Belarusian authorities are failing to ensure the safe operation of the Belarusian NPP. The plant’s operation is frequently interrupted, and its two units are not operating at full capacity due to various technical issues and staff incompetence. According to international practice, nuclear power plant units are usually shut down every 18–24 months for scheduled inspections and maintenance. However, in 2025 alone, one or both units at the Belarusian NPP were shut down at least three times. Shortcomings in Rosatom’s technologies, particularly those related to reactor cooling systems, also increase the risk of incidents.

The development of nuclear energy in Belarus will pose a risk to Lithuania’s national security interests. It is highly likely that Belarus will fail to ensure the safety of the new facilities. The initiation of the new nuclear projects will also distract attention from incidents at the Belarusian NPP and the technical defects that are causing them. Therefore, the risk of nuclear incidents in Belarus is highly likely to increase.

When announcing the decision to construct a third unit at the Belarusian NPP site in November 2025, Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Karankevich also noted that the possibility of building a new nuclear power plant in the Mogilev region was still under consideration.

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ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
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