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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine

During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine

The Russian-Belarusian strategic military exercise Zapad 2025, held in August-September 2025, was smaller in scale than previously due to the Russian Armed Forces’ involvement in combat operations against Ukraine. Up to 30,000 Russian and Belarusian military personnel took part in the exercise, as well as a small number of foreign military personnel and observers.

During the exercise Russia sought to demonstrate its ability to carry out a normal military training cycle and modernise its Armed Forces even while engaged in the large-scale war against Ukraine. It is highly likely that for the sake of deterrence and demonstration of power, Putin stated that 100,000 soldiers had participated in the exercise – several times more than the actual number. Russia’s political and military leadership also emphasised the country’s technological advances during the exercise, showcasing unmanned and robotic technology and electronic warfare capabilities.

The official training scenario included joint Russian and Belarussian defence actions of the Union State against the external aggressor. In fact, the exercise simulated a military conflict with NATO and tested the readiness of the Russian Armed Forces to fight in such a conflict. Like Moscow, Belarus in its rhetoric emphasised the defensive nature of the Zapad exercise, designed to prepare for a counterattack in the event of aggression and accused neighbouring NATO countries of militarisation. The Belarusian regime highlighted the increase in military contingents in the Baltic States and Poland, the number and scale of exercises with NATO allies, and raised assumptions about the allegedly aggressive intentions of NATO countries towards Belarus.

Even before the start of the exercise, Belarusian political and military leaders publicised their decision to reduce the scale of Zapad and move the training sites away from the western borders. However, they later acknowledged that the Belarusian Armed Forces would be active in the border areas during the exercise.

Exercise-related military activity in the vicinity of Lithuania – in the Kaliningrad Region and Belarus – was significantly smaller in scale than during the previous Zapad exercises.

The main focus of the Zapad 2025 exercise was on integrating the lessons learned from the war against Ukraine: forming assault units specialising in capturing fortified defensive positions and strongpoints; camouflage, setting up engineering positions; logistics dispersal; the use of large numbers of UAVs in offensive and defensive operations.

  • Logistics dispersal tactics. Larger logistics supply points are moved away a safe distance from the front line, resources are delivered by trucks and are not concentrated in one area. In some cases, horses or donkeys are used to supply units, and supply routes are covered with nets that provide protection from drone attacks.
  • UAV innovations. FPV (first-person view) type UAVs with optical cables are used; they are resistant to the effects of EW measures, operate at a distance of up to 40 km, and can be used to attack logistics lines and points. Russia also uses this type of UAVs with solar batteries, which extend their operating time.
  • Development of anti-drone measures. Various portable or vehicle-mounted signal jamming systems, directional electronic countermeasures, or real-time radio-electronic spectrum analysers are used to detect approaching UAVs.
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Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
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