Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria

Even after the regime change in Damascus, Russia retained part of its military capabilities in Syria, as relations between the two countries remained based on mutually beneficial pragmatic interests. Moscow seeks to maintain at least part of its military capabilities at the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim airbase, as these military facilities are important for ensuring logistics for Russian operations on the African continent and the activities of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea.

In 2024, following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia had to withdraw some of its forces and military equipment from the country. However, the Kremlin soon began negotiations with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that took power in Syria, on maintaining its forces in Syria. Although HTS initially declared a critical stance towards relations with Russia due to its support for the Assad regime, the two sides subsequently held several rounds of negotiations, and Putin eventually received Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa at the Kremlin. Although on a much smaller scale than during Bashar al-Assad’s rule, it is highly likely that Russia will maintain its military presence in Syria in the near term.