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ENTRY
INTRODUCTION
FOREWORD
SUMMARY
RUSSIA
Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO’s eastern borders despite losses in the war
Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad
Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion
Russia increases pressure on Ukraine’s supporters
The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets
The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia
Intensified Russia’s UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace
It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense – Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary
Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions
During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine
Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile
Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria
Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power
BELARUS
Lukashenka is easing international isolation of the Belarusian regime but does not abandon authoritarian practices or the country’s orientation towards Russia
Relations with China help Belarus to reduce the impact of international isolation
Belarus’s use of extremist watchlists and remote recruitment of agents in its fight against the democratic opposition poses a threat to Lithuania
CHINA
China seeks to reshape the international order by forming a bloc of anti-Western states
The use of Chinese artificial intelligence chatbots presents challenges in terms of personal data security and information censorship
China is consistently increasing its military power in order to ensure its security interests and expand its influence
Intensifying military cooperation between Russia and China signals a strengthening strategic partnership
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
Belarus is committed to the development of nuclear energy in the vicinity of the Lithuanian border
Entities working against Lithuania’s national security interests continue to target strategically important infrastructure and projects, but their methods of operation are changing
Although the scale of international sanctions circumvention remains high, the operating models have not changed
Russian and Belarusian entities seek to operate in the technology sector and use companies established in Lithuania to develop and acquire technologies
Western science and research institutions are in the crosshairs of hostile states
CYBER SECURITY
Cyberattacks are increasing in scale and becoming more destructive
INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES AGAINST LITHUANIA
Pro-Russian individuals contribute to the implementation of hostile states’ goals in Lithuania
Russia is stepping up its information campaigns on social networks, using constant propaganda narratives to support them
Despite declaring a strive for greater independence, the Orthodox Diocese of Vilnius and Lithuania remains dependent on the Moscow Patriarchate
EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM
The rise in popularity of nihilistic right-wing extremism among psychologically vulnerable minors is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks
Islamist terrorist organisations and their followers are targeting minors
The threat of terrorism in Europe will remain high
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Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power

Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power

Africa is important to Russia as part of Moscow’s global southern policy, in reducing its international isolation and counterbalancing its lost Western markets. Russia uses political advisers, intelligence services, economic deals, the Orthodox Church, military support and cultural exchanges to expand its influence in Africa. In 2025, the Russian presidential administration established the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Department, which is also responsible for cooperation with the African continent, demonstrating the desire to pursue a consistent, coordinated policy and make more effective use of the resources allocated for this purpose.

Russia has interests in all African regions, but most recently it has concentrated on the West African coast, where it seeks access to ports as well as mineral resources and provides support for the political Sahel Alliance project. Cooperation with African countries allows Moscow to secure income from the extraction of natural resources, to spread its propaganda narratives and maintain its image of power. One of the most important directions of Russia’s activities in Africa is cooperation in the areas of security, military and arms supplies.

Activities of the Africa Corps

The Russian Ministry of Defence continues its efforts to consolidate military influence on the African continent through its military organisation, the Africa Corps. In order to expand the Corps’ activities, Russia offers its personnel high salaries, similar to those of soldiers sent to fight against Ukraine. The Africa Corps is currently involved in combat operations in Mali and is performing various tasks in Burkina Faso, Libya, Niger, and Equatorial Guinea, such as training local soldiers and protecting VIPs and strategic objects. However, in 2025, the Africa Corps failed to replace Wagner in the Central African Republic.

A larger-scale expansion of the Africa Corps is unlikely in the near term, partly due to limited interest of African countries. However, once the large-scale war against Ukraine ends or fighting on the front lines ceases, it cannot be ruled out that Russia could use some of the troops, weapons, and other freed-up resources to expand its operations in Africa.

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Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria BELARUS
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