SUMMARY

Currently, the growth of Russia’s military capabilities is restricted, as almost all of Russia’s available resources are allocated for the war efforts; therefore, its ability to pose military threats to other countries remains temporarily limited. However, this may change depending on the situation at the front.

It remains dependent on foreign technology, materials, and components, and some of these dependencies are expected to remain in the long term. However, the Kremlin is increasing its resistance to sanctions by investing in technological independence.

The regime’s attempts to normalise relations with the West are motivated by political and economic interests. Proving the legitimacy of his rule and easing the sanctions on Belarus are essential to Lukashenka. Despite the interest in improving relations with the West, Belarus’s policies and actions towards Lithuania and neighbouring countries are highly likely to remain aggressive in the near term.

These lists include not only Belarusians who on political grounds have been convicted of criticising the regime or having links to the democratic opposition but also individuals and entities from other countries. Anyone who is on the lists or has connections with those included faces the threat of arrest in Belarus.

To achieve this goal, Beijing is making efforts to take over the leadership of a bloc of countries that are hostile to the West. China is expanding its cooperation with Russia in order to gain greater influence in the Indian and Pacific regions and globally. Intelligence activities, data collection and information censorship pose security risks to Lithuanian citizens both in China and in Lithuania. It is highly likely that Beijing’s influence will grow in the near term; and attempts to form an alternative world system will become more pronounced, which will increase geopolitical tensions.

One of the methods involves establishing business contacts with entrepreneurs from other European countries or the US, then using them as intermediaries to avoid direct participation and creating a positive image of a business initiative. Russian and Belarusian entities are also seeking to use companies established in Lithuania for acquiring and further developing Western technologies. Their interest in obtaining Western technologies will remain particularly high.

The damage caused by cyberattacks is exacerbated by the vulnerability of supply chains and growing use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence. It is almost certain that with increasing effectiveness of cyber capabilities, organisations unable to adapt to a rapidly changing environment will most significantly face cyber threats.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs plays a key role in disseminating these accusations within international institutions. Through public statements and diplomatic channels, the ministry seeks to highlight the alleged Russophobic policies of the Baltic States. Russia is exploiting these accusations in an attempt to exert pressure on Lithuania and other Baltic States and is likely seeking to justify its aggressive foreign policy and geopolitical interests.

In recent years, several attempts have been identified in Lithuania to establish groups promoting nihilistic right-wing extremism, whose followers are often very young individuals. The spread of right-wing extremist ideology is increasing the likelihood of ‘lone wolf’ attacks. Islamist terrorist organisations and their supporters use new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, to create violent content that appeals to minors. In the near term, terrorist propaganda disseminated via social networks and gaming platforms almost certainly will encourage minors to become involved in terrorist activities.